The Black Swan…

Since there is so much work to do these days, particularly in finance, the masochist in me made me venture beyond my myopic world to find some intellectual stimulus.  While I have read Fooled by Randomness, I can’t say I particularly understood it very well, and frankly most of the arguments left me with a familiar feeling I first experienced when reading Noam Chomsky.

I think part of the development of mankind involves a level of existentialism, for economics & finance this however seems to be more a description of the science’s natural disposition; just as theories are hailed as revolutionary they come tumbling down and people change admiration into contempt.  I remember as an undergraduate, the most appealing thing to me about economics, was having the ability to fundamentally question some of the principles, laws etc taught in class (basically be the wise ass who sat in class dissecting philosophies, not because I cared but because I could).  Here was a field that taunted the renegade in me.  Finally after years of being intellectually oppressed under the Indian education system, where my core function was learning and regurgitating, the gauntlet was thrown down and people dared you to disprove them.  No one theory ever seemed fool proof and everything you wanted to believe required a leap of faith.  Sound familiar?  seems like a religion doesn’t it? (thetas another topic for another day…maybe).

So Nassim Taleb’s book last year called the Black Swan is now creating bigger waves cause apparently according to some of the intellectual hippies it foresaw the fundamental problem in the methodology of analysing economic markets, society…life in general.  I haven’t read the book, and frankly I will with great skepticism, I do this not to feed an anarchist nature in me but I believe if any scholar or author should truly be given adulation and admiration you must judge him from as unbiased a position as possible; for me this is usually going to the opposite extreme of what I think of individual.  So in some convoluted manner, I guess I am saying Taleb is probably onto a fundamental way of thinking which could potentially change the way we see the world and our very nature.

So what has made me take an interest in yet another renegade in a field which seems to thrive on everyone considering themselves different and truly novel?  The clinical approach with which Taleb dissects the differences between real life and what we actually do versus statistically tests, and analysing all human actions on a normal probability, assuming people are rational, blah blah blah (read as, stuff that you hear that acts as a better sedative than a horse tranquilizer).

If you care to (the article is long) read the part somewhere in the middle on “What Is Fundamentally Different About Real Life” Interesting stuff, lets see what the book is like.

I recently read Tipping Point, which was an entertaining read, I don’t know how much I got out of the book, but it definitely made me look at certain things differently and at times question my impulsive rationale about certain occurrences in life.  I hope at some level Taleb’s book doesn’t leave me, as seems to be the norm with most of these books, more questions and less answers.  Frankly if that was all I wanted then I would stick to the greats like Sartre and Nietzsche, they have said all that can be said without ever providing an answer or a means of deriving one.

[This is funny, I just noticed that on Taleb's website he says that in his new book he is working on 'domesticating the unknown'.  Hopefully Black Swan will peak my interest enough to give some legitimacy to this gargantuan task Taleb has embarked on, and frankly if he is successful, he would undoubtedly have to be acclaimed as one of the most influential people in shaping society for the future...when you look at it like that it seems overambitious doesn't it?]

The inability to claim your rightful place

After the recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai, I felt like India as a nation is rapidly reaching a point of no return in terms of international political policy and legitimacy as a state.  The present day India today more than ever epitomizes the character of a what is called a bazaar/ subzi-mundi…the English equivalent I presume would be a Flea Market.  The chaos, and confusion walking into a bazaar is unparalleled, the expectation of someone picking your pocket or snatching your bag is not constant but certainly every present at the back of your mind.

For most “Indians” [fyi: a title I believe anyone who wishes to adopt is entitled to do so…be it a NRI, a person of Indian origin or even someone who simply relates with the vibrance of the culture and people), it would seem I have merely stated an axiom.  Now add in not just the expectation of getting robbed, but getting shot, of having to face the reality of being compelled to use a route to work which is probably most vulnerable to any separatist acts of anarchy.  Each day basically becomes a collection of battles you fight emotionally and professionally.

If you browse a few posts back you will find some writings on my experience working in Mumbai… I worked at Nariman House, use to walk over to the Oberoi Hotel (which was across the street) for coffee in the evenings, took the local train- Central Line in to CST (formerly VT, btw the locals still call it that…but that is a debate for another day…), so the audaciousness of the recent attacks have really hit home in a very graphic manner for me.  The fact that this is one of many attacks in recent years is truly concerning but it is the brazen outlaw-ish nature of these attacks that concerns me more. Terrorist, and the general public view the ‘Indian State’ as being timid and weak, walking the political tight rope of minority politics keeps fractions within the government deterring true, ’servants of the people’ from acting in a manner which is in the best interests of the state.

Psychologically, these attacks, personally, have a deeper impact than the bomb blasts seen in the recent past.  By saying this, I in no way mean to undermine the lives lost or the tragic nature of incidents in the past.  But the simplicity of the attacks were carried out, and the days these individuals held the state of Maharashtra at ransom has ingrained in every person still alive, working and living in and around Mumbai that truly no one is safe anywhere in Mumbai.  Imagine the fear that you could walk down Broadway past Times Square towards the Avenue of the Americas…and get shot at 8AM by a gunman in a van driving past.  Sounds like the script of movie like the Seige, not the reality of existing day to day.   This is the reality people now must accept as they head to work in places like Mumbai and Delhi.  My initial reaction to this incident was a feeling of defeat and dejection.  Some action needs to be taken, I initially felt India stands at a political cross road and this time a Israel like no tolerance towards terrorism policy may be the need of the day, partly because nothing else seems to be working.  Terrorism in India has taken a very dangerous turn in the past 5-10 years, it is no more about common ideologies but more about consolidating in the face of a common enemy.  Muslim separatist, Hindu fundamentalists (or Hindu Zionists, as they were called on pakistani local TV broadcast), Naxalities, Maoists and the rest have found ways of communicating to coordinate the planned and calculated destruction of the Indian State.

These attacks are very humiliating to the concept of being India, I was discussing this with a friend of mine the other day who put it best:

After something like what happened in Mumbai does happen, whether it is said or not, non indians will (and rightfully so) look at Indians and emasculated race lacking in fortitude to stand up for itself.

We need to put aside the “higher ground” matra Indian politics has tried to stand by of “fascilitating positive dialogue”, because this dialogue frankly has not gotten anywhere, and does not even seem to have been carried out with the right motivations.

The positives of taking a Israel like stance would mean the illusion (which currently we dont even have) of security for businesses, and a sense that atleast something is being done (which impacts the human psyche, which at times of calamity demands proactive actions, doesn’t really matter how extreme the action may be and no matter what the cost…as was the case with September 11th as well).  Such an action would also alienate Muslims…let me correct that “Non Hindu’s” further.  But the problem is that these terrorist attacks have Hindu’s wondering why in there own country they are taxed in such a manner for being the majority community.  So what is the answer? As was expected the usual flip-flopping and saying a lot without saying anything is continuing amongst all those under the public eye… Shashi Tharoor’s article seem to continue in the same tone except there are some key aspects he almost accidentally hits on which are important to address… creating national unity and pride above social and cultural differences.

The account of a survivor…this will make your heart sink

Patrick French’s NYT article

Shashi Tharoor’s Op-Ed

New Yorker Article

Having read a considerable amount on the topic, I feel very discontent, it seems imperative that we find a way to address this situation without alienating Muslims or Pakistani’s and the rhetoric seems to have been very unsuccessful at doing so.  India needs to find common ground with the democratic Pakistani establishment or lack thereof.  This is possibly going to be the only way to find a way to contain terrorist acts and anti state organizations.

Yes the Kashmir issue needs to be resolved…here is an idea, why not have it managed as a co-operative effort between India and Pakistan.  Frankly, if it brings peace to the region, and lesser violence why not?  The downside is Indians and Pakistani’s may look at a resolution as defeat in itself.  For the Pakistani’s as Muslims lacking the fortitude to protect the rights of their brethren’, and for Indians it would simply be a wound to their concept of a diverse, secular state.  Another fear for India as a state would be the fall out of such a resolution on other fractions in other parts of the nation.

Being part of what could be considered a generation on the verge of taking over the reigns of Indian society it is imperative that we find a way to resolve this, otherwise it threatens to undermine any effort towards development and prosperity.

I wish there were a open channel through which a ‘young leaders of south asia’ could commune and discuss these issues.  Understanding what people of our generatition care about and what needs to be done to raise a recognition of India as a nation and Indians as people NOT in terms of the past and the laurels of people who fought in the freedom struggle or rulers from centuries past…but the India of today, and the generation that will definitely mold public policy of this new century.

It is dissapointing that after 60+ years of independence our country still dwells in the past and has not gotten over the hangover of our colonial past.  It is not my generation that was handed a independent India, it was one that has, admittedly done many great things for the country, but one thing my parents generation has been unable to do is grasp the concept of national pride and utilize it as a unifying force.  I can only hope acts of redemption are somewhere around the corner.

Turmoil and beyond

A year since my last post…
The reason for my silence…frankly enough is being said in the real world, for my musing to have relevance, and I felt it was important to have something of significance to say…
This blog is no more… an MBA blog, frankly it was a position i didnt feel comfortable representing. Reasons more personal than anything else.
Just to put things into perspective I will do a quick update…I graduated from the GSB this year. The school changed its name, so I guess I have the honor of being from the last class of Chicago GSB… I work now…again; but its different…feel like I have a game plan now. Wait let me correct that…I thought I had a game plan. A wrench was thrown right when I started working.
Anyways I think that’s about it.
Will post more often, cause I find myself having more to say now…